![]() ![]() However, there are a few problems with this: The most important thing is the odds of the Patriots coming back to win if the Seahawks score too quickly.īased on Advanced Football Analytics’ Win Probability Calculator, a team starting at the 25-yard line and down three points with 20 seconds left in the game will win about 5 percent of the time. If that sounds high or low, it doesn’t really matter: It’s not the most important factor in the calculation. ![]() For this analysis, I’m going to assume he’s about 80 percent. Because the field goal is a sure thing, the team is willing to wait.īut as great as Lynch is, he isn’t the same a kicker attempting a 20-yard field goal. The scenario would be the same as when a team can win with a short field goal. ![]() If Lynch were a sure thing, the Seahawks definitely wouldn’t run on second down. The question is when they should’ve called a run.Īnd this is where the logic of those Harvard tweets undoes itself. Thus the question isn’t whether the Seahawks should’ve called a run - we’ve already stipulated that. So, the Seahawks had three downs to work with, but they could only run Lynch twice at most. If they rushed on second down, didn’t make it in, called timeout, rushed again, and still didn’t make it in, they’d probably be out of time before they could get off another play. ![]() Sounds crazy, but he’s right: With 26 seconds left and only one timeout, the Seahawks couldn’t run Lynch three times in a row. But if they didn’t, at least they would’ve run a few seconds off the clock. It was a clear thought, but it didn’t work out right.”ĭefiant! Basically, he thought the Seahawks were going to score regardless, so he was willing to waste a play on a pass. “I didn’t want to waste a run play on their goal-line guys. “We were going to run the ball in to win the game, but not on that play,” he said. The first wave of stats to roll in wasn’t particularly favorable either: As noted by my colleague Neil Paine, the Harvard Sports Analysis Collective laid out the damning facts:īut why would that lead to a pass? That takes less time off the clock than rushing. “ Pete Carroll botches the Super Bowl,” wrote Ian O’Connor, simply stating what most people were thinking. For many others, it seemed like an inexplicable miscue. For Seahawks fans, calling a pass was essentially Pete Carroll denying his team’s fate. The Web erupted in outrage that Beast Mode never got his moment. But the play call came in, Russell Wilson attempted a doomed pass that Malcolm Butler intercepted, and it was Seattle that punched and screamed its way off the field. Beast Mode was going to drag the New England team kicking and screaming into the end zone if he had to. The football gods had telegraphed how they wanted the game to end, directing a floating ball straight into Jermaine Kearse’s hands. Marshawn Lynch was waiting in the backfield, poised to do what he was put on this Earth to do: Get a touchdown - this touchdown. NFL footage © NFL Productions LLC.Everyone knew it was coming. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. ![]()
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